Tony and Chelsea Northrup have updated their mirrorless predictions.
In short, they are most optimistic about Canon and Sony and they also think that Fujifilm is here to stay. About Fujifilm they say:
- Fujifilm stock are doing great (unlike Nikon stock, which saw a massive long term drop)
- loyal fanbase
- when you get used to a Fuji and switch to something else, that something else feels ugly. Fun to shoot Fuji
- X-T3 sales are really strong
- Fujifilm said the camera division needs to justify itself with profits
- cameras are 16% of overall Fujifilm company revenue
- X-T4 is $1,600. But there are full frame cameras that are same price or cheaper (Nikon Z5 and Canon RP)
- Fuji should improve AF
- Fuji has less lens development than other camera brands
- Tony says Fuji will stay in game and is not worried about its future
- Fuji will gain market share as Panasonic and Olympus will leave camera industry
- there will be lots of firmware updates and there will be a smaller GFX100
This is perfectly in line with the mirrorless shipment data we recently published, where Sony, Canon and Fujifilm are on top.
Where Tony is Wrong
DISCLAIMER: This is not meant to be disrespectful towards Tony. I hope he takes it as a constructive argument, that might add some food for thoughts.
While I am happy that Tony and Chelsea look positive into Fuji’s future, I still struggle to understand the point that Tony is trying to make so often in his videos.
His point: there are full frame cameras that cost the same or are even cheaper than some APS-C cameras, hence APS-C will suffer (although facts say that APS-C mirrorless dominates full frame).
But I am surprised that he only looks at price and sensor size.
It would be like saying that a basic equipped car that goes from 0 to 60 in 7 seconds is always better than a full equipped car that goes from 0 t to 60 in 8 seconds, even though the second car offers advanced autonomous driving, more comfortable suspensions, more airbags, more safety features and less fuel consumption for the same price of the first car.
You got the point: you simply can’t ignore the overall feature package when you compare cameras.
A Canon RP or Nikon Z5 are cameras full of compromises and come nowhere near to the feature package that an X-T4 offers. Not to talk about the Canon, that, despite being full frame, has for example worse video dynamic range than a Fujifilm APS-C camera.
Fact is: if you want the features of an X-T4 (dual UHS-II SD-card slot, 4K60p, fast fps, blackout-free EVF, great video specs with tons of different video codec, high Mbps, high-res EVF etc) in a full frame camera body, then you go quickly and easily beyond the $2,500 price tag.
Unless what Tony wants to say is that people do not care about the overall package, but they base their buying decisions only looking at sensor size, no matter how many compromises full frame makes.
- read here – Fujifilm APS-C is Dead? Nikon Z5, Sony A7III, Canon R6 vs the Fujifilm X Series Art of Balance
- read here – The Sony A7C Proves My Point: Full Frame Compromises vs APS-C Balance
Panasonic Fiasco: Did Fujifilm Well NOT to go Full Frame?
Much more dark are Tony’s visions for the future Panasonic and partially also Nikon (and Olympus is already out).
And let me say this.
We know from official statements of SIGMA CEO, that he is disappointed with the progress of the full frame L-mount alliance. A report at mirrorlessrumors here digs a bit deeper into the reasons for this unhappiness.
This reminds me of a rather controversial article I wrote last year, where I said that the Panasonic full frame move was the perfect experiment to see, if there would have been still space for a new full frame mirrorless player in the crowded FF market, and hence if Fujifilm missed a chance by not going full frame, or if sticking with APS-C and MF was the smarter move.
Now, given the fiasco that the L Mount alliance seems to go towards, we can say that Fujifilm avoided to make a major error, by sticking with APS-C and MF.
Also Tony seems to agree that Panasonic has no future, and their failure will attract more users towards the Fujifilm X system.
You can see the video down below.