Canon Vs. Nikon Vs. Fujifilm
** Update: Thom Hogan also things the prediction is BS. Read his article at sansmirrors **
This morning started just as usual.
I woke up at 5:30 AM to prepare my coffee in the fantastic Bialetti Brikka Moka recommended to me by a FR-reader (thanks a ton, a game changer :) ).
Usually I get about 10 emails over night, and I try to reply to all of them as quickly as possible within 6:30 AM, but this morning an email of a source made me almost spill my precious coffee.
I received the information about an internal Fujifilm document that predicts the following scenario:
- within 2021, Fujifilm predicts a decrease in market share for Canon and Nikon of 50%
This is based on internal studies by Fujifilm Japan.
The same document predicts a grow for Fujifilm… a positive and nice grow, but nothing incredible or explosive. Definitely realistic.
Keep in mind… this is a rumor… a rumor I trust, but still a rumor ;) .
Full Frame CaNikon Mirrorless
At the time the document was made (just a few months ago), Fujifilm was well aware of the rumors about a Canon and Nikon mirrorless camera.
The most reliable Canon rumor site, CanonWatch (the only site able to consistently leak even press images of upcoming Canon products) and sites like Nikoneye.com here, are regulary telling us about Canon and Nikon joining the full frame mirroless market.
So we can be sure: full frame mirrorless is coming also for Canon and Nikon.
But the question is: is a 50% market share decrease for Canon and Nikon in such a short time (within 2021) realistic?
DSLR is DEAD!!!
Zack Arias said it already back in 2013: DSLR is Dead!
He did gain quite some shitstorm when he said that, but guess what? 5 years later it turns out he was right!
Sticking to DSRL’s in 2018 would be like sticking to the VW Beetle in times people drive highly efficient hybrid Toyota’s or even Tesla’s.
Canon and Nikon finally realized that if they do not cannibalize their own DSLR market, somebody else will do it (with Sony and Fujifilm on the top of the list).
Mirrorless is the present and the future… for tons of reasons, as Tony Northurp explains in his Canon & Nikon Full-frame Mirrorless Camera Predictions.
Should Fujifilm Fear CaNikon Full Frame Mirrorless?
Canon and Nikon are losing market share right now, but they are still the big names in the photography industry.
And while it is true that they come very late to the mirrorless party, I think their name is still so big, that once they will launch their mirrorless cameras, lots of Pro’s currently considering to switch to Fujifilm or Sony mirrorless, will simply stick to their trusted brand and go all in with CaNikon mirrorless. Hence, I can’t see their market share decline 50% within 2021.
On the other hand, Fujifilm always publicly said they would be happy if Canon and Nikon would finally get seriously into the mirrorless market, since that would raise the overall “awareness” for mirrorless cameras and increase the chance that Pro’s would finally consider also (Fujifilm) mirrorless as a great option for their photography.
Fujifilm’s (and Sony’s) big advantage is, that they have collected over half a decade of experience with mirrorless cameras, whereas Canon and Nikon have to start (almost) from scratch.
Also, Fujifilm has a terrific lens lineup for their APS-C mirrorless cameras and a quickly growing GF medium format lens selection for the Fujifilm GFX system
I personally can’t wait to see Canon and Nikon to finally get seriously into the mirrorless market, as competition is always good for us customers, and Fujifilm will have to work hard to keep their advantage.
So, Canon and Nikon… welcome to the mirrorless party. :)